We are witnessing a sea change of political currents both in America and in Europa. Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has sent shock waves through the liberal establishment on both sides of the Atlantic. But it is a salutary shock.
It forces the European political class , and the German in particular, to abandon some of their illusions and forces us to become more grown up and self-reliant in matters of economic and security policy. Trump’s brutal way of formulating American national interests is refreshing. It tears away the veil of fake moralising and ideological kitsch that have obscured our perception of realities and actual global power issues.
In a strange historical coincidence, on the same day that Trump’s landslide victory was confirmed, the self-declared “progress coalition” government of Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Liberal FDP has collapsed. Scholz has dismissed his liberal finance minister Christian Lindner, who resisted higher public deficits and called for a change in economic policy to reverse the decline of the country.
A great sigh of relief went through Germany when Scholz announced the end of the ‘traffic light’ coalition government. An end to the miserable period. His was an administration that has strangled and suffocated the country. The ‘traffic light’ coalition was a complete disaster. It rightly earned itself the prize for “most unpopular government” in post-war Germany with only 14% of the population still in favour of it. The SPD-Green axis was neither willing nor capable to implement the course corrections that would have been necessary after the 16 years of Angela Merkel, who left a devastating legacy. Instead, under Scholz, the SPD and the Greens—and also the Liberals—the country increased the pace on its voyage into the abyss, while rainbow flags were fluttering on the mast.
There will be new elections on 23 February 23rd—in barely a hundred days. The likely winner and next German Chancellor is Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democrats. Merz could decide on a decisive change of direction. For instance, in stemming the tide of illegal immigration, the most pressing issue for many voters. He could do this immediately. The right-of-centre parties CDU/CSU, FDP, and Alternative for Germany (AfD) hold a majority of seats in the Bundestag. However, Merz has made it clear that he would never accept any votes from the AfD for any bills that the CDU proposes. Rather, the Christian Democrats have vowed to refrain from introducing any such bills that might generate “a chance majority” including the AfD.
Merz is the personification of the “firewall” against AfD, trying to eternally exclude the second strongest party from participating in government. But his insistence on the antidemocratic firewall policies (or cordon sanitaire, as the practice is called in Belgium or France) makes Merz permanently dependent on left-wing parties for future coalitions. By denying a clear centre-right majority, he must resort to cooperation with parties on the left. Thus, the CDU is abandoning conservative voters and opening the flank wide open to the AfD. In the first polls after the coalition government collapsed, the AfD promptly gained. Party leader Alice Weidel called the breakdown of the ‘traffic light’ coalition a moment of liberation for Germany.
I doubt that Merz will bring about a fundamental reversal of the policies that have caused Germany’s decline. His party was responsible for the disastrous open-door refugee policy in the time of Chancellor Angela Merkel, allowing more than two million migrants, mostly from the Middle East and Africa, uncontrolled entry to the country. Crime has surged since then. The decline of public security is visible in many cities but also smaller towns.
Merz has recently stated that the enormously costly “energy transition” policies, informed by the ideology of the Greens and implemented by Merkel,, are irreversible. The only major dissent with the Greens seems to be that the CDU has returned to supporting nuclear energy (which Merkel’s government decided to kill). But that seems too late, now that the German nuclear plants have all been shut down and are being demolished. Merz will prefer to enter a government coalition with the Social Democrats while there are strong regional leaders who still flirt with the Greens. Anyone hoping for a decisive change of direction will be disappointed.
But Germany’s next government will be faced with a radically different administration across the Atlantic. Donald Trump’s return to the White House sends shock waves through Europe. His landslide victory has triggered deep anxiety among the progressive elites and activists whining about the ascent of “fascism” in America. One prominent climate activist, Germany’s own version of Greta Thunberg, posted just one word—“Weltschmerz”—with an English translation on X. The editor-in-chief of the weekly Die Zeit called Trump’s election “a nightmare”. Der Spiegel lamented “the end of the West” because left-wing progressive policies are now called into question. This is also the case with our foreign policy.
The construct of a progressive “values-based foreign policy”, advocated by Annalena Baerbock, our Green party minister of foreign affairs, is falling apart. This hopelessly naïve foreign policy, which oscillates between pacifism and bellicosity, but lacks basic knowledge of power politics, is now imploding when confronted with an American president who ruthlessly puts his country first. The signs are pointing to a return of hard Realpolitik.
Obviously, there are winners and losers around the world bracing for Trump’s return to power. China could be a big loser if the Trump administration turns against Beijing and starts a coordinated attempt to push back on the economic, military and diplomatic front. One of the most prominent beneficiaries of Trump’s win might be Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is closely connected to Trump and some of his key advisors. In Europe, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán was the first to send a warm congratulatory message to Trump after the polls indicated his victory. But among the centrist and liberal political leaders on our continent, many worry about a retreat of American military presence in Europe and a sharp reduction of (financial) support for Ukraine.
The return of Trump certainly does not mean the end of the West or the Western alliance. Rather, it implies a return to the basic political core of nation states based on and pursuing national interests. In spite of many fears in Europe, it is not clear that the U.S. under Trump will throw Ukraine down Putin’s throat. However, there will and must be a new start in relations between Washington and Moscow, which could facilitate peace negotiations. That would be welcome.
Interestingly and surprisingly, many senior officials in the Ukrainian government had actually (secretly) hoped for Trump’s victory, as British magazine The Economist has explained in a recent article (Why Volodymyr Zelensky may welcome Donald Trump’s victory). Faced with the choice between the weak Biden administration and the “wildcard president who would rip up the rules,” they preferred the latter.
President Zelensky was quick to praise Trump’s “peace through strength approach in global affairs” and expressed his willingness to work with the incoming president to find a “just peace” for his country. After his first post-election phone call with the President-elect, Zelensky spoke glowingly of Trump. The Economist wrote:
America’s refusal to grant Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, its chronic delays in supplies of military aid (even the already approve) and its inability to offer solid security guarantees are increasingly seen [in Ukraine] as weakness and hypocrisy. Mr. Trump’s victory, however, could offer Mr. Zelensky a way out of what looks like a bloody deadlock at beast, defeat at worst.
Most European media completely failed to understand and anticipate the behaviour of American voters who allowed Trump’s comeback. They worry about the economy, inflation, and mass migration. America is not prepared to sacrifice its status as the world’s number one power to dreams of a world climate government, or a world democracy. What we learn, again, from the election outcome: Regular working-class Americans are fed up with throwing their tax money out the window for wokeness, left-wing identity politics, DEI ideology, climate delusion, and rampant social spending on migrants. They will not sacrifice their security and identity to a suicidal open borders policy. This is also the case in Germany. And that is why AfD has surged in the polls in the last years.
Trump’s protectionist ideas and the introduction of new tariffs will hurt Europe’s and Germany’s export manufacturing sector. The automobile industries and others are clearly worried. I hope that the tariffs will be modest, and the damage limited. However, we have to acknowledge that the present dire situation, the economic malaise of Germany’s traditional industries in particular, is not due to American policy but completely home-made: Too high energy costs due to Green energy transition policies, a high level of taxes and labour costs, excessive red tape and regulation have contributed to a steady loss of competitiveness.
In the 19th century, Germany rose to become the industrial leader and an economic powerhouse, the country recovered from the devastations of World War Two. But for some time, we have been falling behind. We lack the level of innovations that some U.S. regions generate. The fact that Trump has Elon Musk, the most successful entrepreneur and innovator of our times, at his side also stands for a visionary departure. America is literally reaching for the stars again. Musk sends rockets to space and constructs shiny cyber trucks, while Germany’s Green idiot-progressives want cumbersome cargo bikes to replace cars.
You hardly find Musk’s rousing optimism and irrepressible will to succeed in Germany. Rather, the owner of Tesla and X is vilified. The magazine Der Spiegel recently put out a story on Musk titled “Public Enemy Number Two” and absurdly accused him of destroying democracy.
The European left-wing elites hate Elon Musk because he liberated Twitter/X and has restored a balance of power on the platform that was previously dominated by left-wingers. He stands for maximum freedom of opinion and democratic debate. This is a horror vision for the establishment guardians, who strive to control the discourse in this country and censor unwelcome opinions. What they dislike, they dismiss as disinformation. Trump’s victory is the breakthrough in the cultural battle against the left-wing cancel culture!
What makes Trump’s victory all the more painful for Europeans and Germans is the fact that he exposes our own weaknesses and illusions in matters of security policy. The former president was quite right to lambast Germany’s inadequate armed forces and free riding on U.S. security guarantees. For three decades, especially during Merkel’s terms, Germany has underfunded its military. We continually missed the NATO target of 2% of gross domestic product.
Senator J.D. Vance was right when he demanded in a Financial Times op-ed piece this February (JD Vance: Europe must stand on its own two feet on defence): “Europe must stand on its own two feet on defense”. At the moment, Germany’s Bundeswehr is a one-legged soldier. Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has struggled to scratch together enough resources to move one single brigade to the Baltics. In late February 2022, after Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende, a historical sea change. In reality, there has been little action from his words. The €100 bn debt-financed extra money for the Bundeswehr has failed to lead to any real, significant change. Germany is still way behind the 2% NATO spending target.
Trump will once again present us with the bill that Germany’s governments, from Schröder to Merkel (and to Scholz, Merkel’s onetime finance minister), believed they could evade. After the fall of the communist Soviet empire, the Germans hoped to enjoy a “peace dividend” forever at the expense of national defence and stay in the shadow of NATO and under the shield of U.S. nuclear weapons almost for free. At last, Trump will force us to invest much more in our own armed forces. This is the precondition if we want to be more independent and sovereign.
Trump’s “America first” policies, his pushback against illegal immigration and against left-wing diversity agendas, might provide an ideological boost for right-wing parties or right-wing governments in Europe. His protectionism will also make it harder for us. We have to get a grip on our countries, our nations. Perhaps the new Trump government offers the chance for a new phase in transatlantic relationships where Europeans become real partners, not client states.
