EU leaders have arrived in Brussels on Thursday, March 6th for an emergency European Council summit the likes of which we haven’t seen for years as Europe’s long-term security—and peace—hangs in the balance.
The biggest issue to discuss is how to ramp up the bloc’s defense capabilities to deter Russian aggression in the future. The starting point is the EU Commission’s €800 billion defense scheme that involves taking on massive national and joint debt to finance rapid rearmament.
The focus, however, is still on Ukraine, as the summit was convened in response to President Trump taking charge of the Ukraine peace process and setting the scene for a negotiated settlement, which amounts to the betrayal of Kyiv in the eyes of most European leaders.
Instead of diplomatic engagement with Russia and the U.S., Europe’s preferred way is the ‘peace through strength’ approach, meaning increasing military supplies to Ukraine until it gains the upper hand in the war and can start negotiating from a position of power.
For Trump and a minority of member states, including Hungary and Slovakia, this strategy is not only unrealistic but morally wrong as well, as it would only prolong the bloodshed for little to no benefit in the end.
What’s more, the increasingly aggressive involvement of Europe in the war risks global escalation, but EU leaders such as Macron—who called for extending the French nuclear umbrella over Europe the night before the summit—seem to be playing exactly for that.
- Orbán backs defense ramp-up as long as it “empowers member states”
After meeting French President Emmanuel Macron the day before, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán said while there were disagreements between them on how to reach peace in Ukraine, they both agreed “that we must strengthen the defense capabilities of European nations, and these efforts should empower member states rather than Brussels bureaucrats.”
“We do not want to create a superstate in Brussels and we do not want to subordinate our independence and sovereignty to anyone,” Orbán said.
Orbán previously said he would veto the summit’s final resolution if it contained further military support for Ukraine, but has always been positive about boosting defense spending with common means as long as defense decisions remain strictly national competence.
- Fico will veto unless the EU pressures Ukraine into resuming gas transit
Before coming to Brussels, Slovak PM Robert Fico told the parliament back home that he would block the summit conclusions unless given guarantees that the EU will exert pressure on Ukraine to resume the transit of Russian gas, which Kyiv cut off at the beginning of this year.
Bratislava has been asking Brussels for months now to help negotiate some kind of deal with Kyiv that would allow the Russian gas to continue flowing through Ukraine and even presented a study which showed that the one-side Ukrainian move will indirectly cost the whole of Europe up to €100 billion in increased electricity prices—yet, the Commission only downplayed these concerns.
Insider sources told us that the Council will probably insert a reference to this in the conclusion to appease Fico and avoid his veto, but that alone is no guarantee that Brussels will put real pressure on Kyiv, much less that it would work.
- Scholz avoids the limelight and merely welcomes Zelensky’s openness to negotiate a ceasefire
The outgoing Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, has welcomed the signal sent by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, that he is willing to negotiate a possible ceasefire with Russia, the United States and Europe. In line with his usual low political profile, Scholz has limited himself to pointing out that Berlin will support this process from the background.
Scholz also reiterated the need for all NATO member countries to increase their defense budgets. However, he made it clear that Germany is working internally on how to finance it, in an indirect reference to the alleged agreement between the CDU and the SPD to overcome the constitutional ceiling of the budget deficit that would take place next week, according to recent information.
With this position, Scholz maintains his strategy of avoiding any protagonism in the Ukraine crisis, either by his status as acting chancellor or by allowing other European leaders to take responsibility and lead diplomatic and military initiatives.
- Turkey ready to send peacekeepers to Ukraine; Russia warns of NATO intervention
Turkey confirmed Wednesday that it could contribute soldiers to a future international peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached with Russia. Turkish Defense Ministry sources assured that Ankara, with the second-largest army in NATO, would value its participation if all parties agreed to it.
The proposal has been discussed in Europe for weeks. France and the UK have expressed their willingness, while the U.S. refuses to participate, and Spain considers it premature due to the ongoing fighting. Macron is the only EU leader who, for the moment, remains willing to send troops to Ukraine, as he expressed yesterday in a televised message to the French nation.
For its part, Russia clearly warned that it would consider any European deployment as a direct NATO intervention. Although a member of the Atlantic Alliance, Turkey maintains direct, albeit ambiguous relations with Moscow, in line with Ankara’s interests. Ukraine defends the need for a robust international presence to ensure peace and deter future Russian aggression.
- Hungary’s position on Ukraine remains unchanged
In a long thread on X, the Hungarian PM’s political director, Balázs Orbán laid down why Budapest won’t budge under any pressure today and will remain committed to peace.
Hungary has consistently called the EU’s ‘peace through strength’ approach unrealistic and immoral. PM Orbán urged his colleagues ahead of the Council summit to follow in President Trump’s footsteps instead by opening diplomatic channels with Russia and helping bring about a negotiated settlement.
Otherwise, Europe only risks increasing global isolation. Not only has it cut itself off from Russian energy and is on the brink of a trade war with China, but now has also begun an ideological conflict with the U.S. and is “marching itself off a cliff” by escalating the war in Ukraine, as Balázs Orbán put it.
- Kallas suggests they will circumvent any veto attempt by member states
The EU desperately seeks ways around internal vetoes from countries like Hungary over military aid to Ukraine. EU Foreign Affairs chief Kaja Kallas described the plan today as a “coalition of the willing.” Yet, it ironically resembles a “coalition of the unwilling,” formed precisely to sidestep these internal obstacles.
“Our new initiative is considered the coalition of the willing, so that one country can’t block everyone else,” Kallas said, implicitly acknowledging frustration with the EU’s internal divisions. Brussels is exploring various financial options to bypass vetoes, including grants and fiscal rule changes.
Kallas also insisted Europe must strengthen itself to remain credible to the United States, even as internal disagreements highlight persistent EU weaknesses.
- Tusk: entering an arms race with Russia is a “must”
Europe must match Russia’s defense industrial output, and fast, Polish PM Donald Tusk said in his doorstep interview. He said Europe “must” enter this “arms race,” although history shows they hardly end well.
“There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine, the new approach of the American administration to Europe, and the arms race started by Russia pose completely new challenges to us,” the PM said.
“The arms race presents us with entirely new challenges, and Europe must take on this challenge, this arms race, and must win it,” Tusk went on, adding that he’s convinced that Russia will lose this race, just like the Soviet Union did.
But Moscow spent nearly 7% of Russia’s GDP on defense last year, something that would take long years until Europe can match given the long decades of refusing to even commit to the minimum NATO requirement.
- Von der Leyen details her €800 billion defense plan to European leaders
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, presented to the leaders of the 27 EU countries gathered in Brussels her ambitious defense plan, dubbed “Rearm Europe”, endowed with 800 billion euros, an amount that far exceeds the established spending limit and exhausts the budget for 2021-2027.
Von der Leyen described today’s extraordinary summit as “a decisive moment” for the future of European security and stressed the urgent need to strengthen military capabilities in the face of growing threats. The plan involves creating national champions.
Internal sources have confirmed that priority will be given to European industries, but many of them are owned by U.S. investment funds.
The initiative envisages a loan program backed by European guarantees of 150 billion euros. This mechanism will allow national governments to rapidly increase their defense spending without being constrained by the Brussels budgetary restrictions. The European Investment Bank (EIB) will also break its 8 billion limit for defense investment.
- EU Parliament leaders call for bypassing vetoes
Leaders of the mainstream parliamentary groups in Brussels also weighed in ahead of the summit, not that anyone asked.
EPP chief Manfred Weber reeled against Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, who previously said he would veto the joint resolution if it contained references to continued military support to Ukraine instead of ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations. According to Weber, this position is unacceptable if Orbán wants to remain part of the “European family.”
“We as EPP, are fed up with Victor Orbán just blocking a common understanding [and] common sense in the European Union. He has to reflect [on] if he really wants to be embedded and be part of a broader European family,” the EPP president said.
Valerie Hayer, the head of the liberal Renew group went one step further and spelled out what Weber only implied: ditching the Council format requiring unanimity to bypass national vetoes.
“I hope that the European Council will be the right format to do that but we are all aware about some hypothetical national vetoes, from Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, so we will see what games they will play today,” she said. “If they prefer to play Putin’s game, we do it without them, we can do it with 25 or less member states because we need to move quickly.”
- Lithuania suggests setting 2030 for Ukraine’s EU accession deadline
After arriving at the summit, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said the EU can’t afford to waste time with “long hours of discussion with no clear outcome,” because Ukraine needs action now.
Nausėda called for the summit to end with concrete commitments on defense spending, military support, and Ukraine’s EU membership—proposing January 1st, 2030 to be set for the country’s EU accession deadline.
“We need to look for ways to take decisions otherwise history will penalize us and we will pay a very high cost,” the president said.
