Romania was left guessing after the Trump administration delayed the implementation of the country’s inclusion into its Visa Waiver Program last week. The Internal Ministry was quick to deny the claims from right-wing politicians that the move might be Washington’s reply to the country’s democratic backsliding, but a subtle hint from the U.S. embassy in Romania—reposting JD Vance’s critical speech from Munich—suggested the opposition voices might be correct.
The dispute started when the largest opposition party, the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) claimed at the end of last week that delaying the initial March 31st deadline for waiving Romanian’s visa requirement for traveling to the U.S. was a direct consequence of last year’s annulled presidential election and the subsequent banning of nationalist frontrunner Călin Georgescu from re-entering the race.
According to AUR Senator Cristina Dumitrescu:
Our partners no longer have any trust in the political class in Bucharest. Whose fault is this?
Deputy Internal Minister Cătălin Predoiu was quick to reject these allegations on Saturday, calling the claims “fake and dangerous,” and insisted that the delay was solely because of the Trump administration’s fully unrelated evaluation of all migration-related policies.
On the same day, however, the U.S. embassy in Bucharest posted a transcript of a portion of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he directly called out the undemocratic nature of the election annulment, based on “flimsy suspicions” of Russian interference and “enormous pressure” from the EU. Lest we forget, last month Vance told his Munich audience
If your democracy can be destroyed with a few thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with.
According to opposition figures in politics and media, the timing of the embassy’s online post suggests that Washington is sending a subtle yet clear signal to Bucharest’s establishment: violating basic democratic principles has consequences.
U.S. VISA WAIVER FOR ROMANIA IN JEOPARDY—U.S. EMBASSY REPOSTS VANCE SLAM ON GEORGESCU ELECTION BAN
After reports the U.S. Visa Waiver Program for Romania is at risk over the ban on Calin Georgescu, the U.S. Embassy in Bucharest reposted Vance’s Munich speech.
Vance ripped… pic.twitter.com/kLgebkJLKk
— Alex Kennedy (@AlexkennedyIran) March 22, 2025
In the meantime, the country is gearing up for the repeated presidential elections, scheduled for May. The historic race is shaping up to be a battle between the Eurosceptic nationalist parties behind AUR president George Simion and everybody else, who will likely unite behind whichever candidate will end up in second place and qualify for the runoffs.
Simion officially replaced Georgescu as the nationalist candidate last week, when the Constitutional Court approved his last-minute candidacy after banning Georgescu. Simion has led the polls ever since but is also projected to lose the second round to a pro-European candidate backed by all other political forces.
At first, it looked like the runoff would be between Simion and Nicușor Dan, the independent liberal mayor of Bucharest. The latest polls, however, put Dan in third place, behind Crin Antonescu, the joint candidate of the ruling establishment PSD (S&D) and PNL (EPP).
This could change if either Dan or Elena Lasconi—the president of his former party, Save Romania Union (USR)—drops out in favor of the other, potentially even giving the anti-establishment liberals the first place. That scenario would be almost identical to the outcome of the December presidential election when only opposition figures and no establishment candidate qualified for the second round.
Romania, CURS poll:
Presidential election
Simion (AUR-ECR): 29% (+4)
Antonescu (PSD/PNL/UDMR-S&D|EPP): 22% (-1)
Dan (*-RE): 18% (-6)
Ponta (*-S&D): 13% (new)
Lasconi (USR-RE): 12% (-1)+/- vs. 21-25 January 2025
Fieldwork: 19-22 March 2025
Sample size: 1,203— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 23, 2025
