After a series of false alarms and final adjustments, the appointment of François Bayrou as prime minister and head of the French government to replace Michel Barnier was confirmed by the Élysée on Friday, December 13th, shortly after noon. The president has chosen someone who is very well known to the French—an old hand in politics and one of his long-standing supporters. The Left has called for immediate censure, while the RN is reserving its judgment.
The prime minister’s announcement was due to be made on the evening of Thursday, December 12th, when Emmanuel Macron returned from his trip to Poland, but the head of state preferred to take his time. Only the names of putative candidates who had turned down the post, such as former defence and foreign affairs minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who considered himself too old for the job, were leaked to the press.
Bayrou was received by Macron at 8:30 a.m. on Friday for a very long meeting, which some sources say was stormy and tense. The president is said to have offered him the job of number two in the government, with a left-leaning former Macron minister, Roland Lescure, as number one. Bayrou refused, prompting an initially reluctant Macron to finally entrust him with the reins of power. A whim? Perhaps. This is the final grand-guignolesque episode in this haphazard race for prime minister organised by a haggard and bewildered France. Once again, the influence of the Rassemblement National may have weighed in the balance. Lescure is known to be violently hostile to the RN, and Marine Le Pen’s party had unofficially let it be known that he would be censured if chosen.
Bayrou has been a fixture in French politics for decades—so those expecting a ‘surprise’ from Macron will be in for a surprise. He has served many times as a minister and has stood several times in the presidential election at the head of a centrist formation, the UDF, which has since become the MoDem (Mouvement Démocrate). In 2007, he even emerged as the ‘third man,’ with more than 18% of the vote in the first round. At legislative elections, the very modest electoral weight of his party has never prevented him from being present on numerous occasions in majorities—mainly on the Right—by virtue of that well-known French ‘centrist privilege’ whereby groups with a minority of votes have a political role that is out of all proportion to their real importance.
Bayrou can in many ways be considered a pure product of the dominant system, and it is not for nothing that he has been a near-constant supporter of Macron since the latter came to power. He is a convinced Europeanist, federalist version. Academician Maurice Druon, one of the most brilliant writers of his time, said of him in 2004:
Mr. François Bayrou, a secondary character and destined to remain so, is remarkable only for his perseverance in harming France’s highest interests.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Bayrou spoke out in favour of compulsory vaccination, which earned him a certain amount of animosity from the French, who were reluctant to have health policies they had not chosen imposed on them. His centrist concern to be above partisan quarrels is reminiscent of the ‘en même temps’ (at the same time) of the president who now calls on him. His stints in government have not left lasting memories: a lot of talk, little action.
But he has, on a number of occasions, played an original role in the little theatre of French political life.
This is primarily due to his origin and temperament. He comes from the southwest of France, was for many years mayor of the town of Pau in the Pyrenees, and takes a certain pride in his local roots, even though he doesn’t have an accent. Bayrou is a fervent and regular visitor to the shrine at Lourdes. He claims to be a practising Catholic. An anecdote about him is circulating in the press rooms: the Blessed Virgin would once have told him personally that he would end up in the Élysée Palace. Not everyone can say that! While waiting for the Élysée, here he is at Matignon.
As a Catholic, he is opposed to the latest legislative developments aimed at introducing euthanasia in France. “Let’s not create a public service to give death,” he declared in the spring of 2023 in the columns of Le Figaro. Now that he is in charge, will he stick to this line, or will he give in to win the good graces of the Left? A year earlier, he had also expressed scepticism about the inclusion of the right to abortion in the constitution, deeming it “pointless” and a low priority.
This ‘vieille France’ side—it would be an exaggeration to go so far as to describe him as ‘conservative’—came to the fore with vigour during the 2002 presidential election campaign. Visiting a market in Strasbourg, he slapped a boy who was picking his pocket in front of the cameras. He did this without the slightest hesitation, expressing the belief that France lacked authority at all levels. This anecdotal and ephemeral episode earned him a temporary surge in popularity.
The final point to his credit is his constant concern for the debt which, for a very long time, he was one of the few French politicians to systematically highlight in his political analyses. This is probably one of the reasons why Emmanuel Macron chose him—more than the slap or the Holy Virgin, of course.
Today, the task ahead of him is more than arduous. Resignation, without enthusiasm, greeted his appointment. His ‘ability to adapt’ is praised, a disguised way of saying that he has no ideas to displease anyone. He is seen as ‘the man for the job’, but for how long?
The left-wing coalition has already announced that it will not wait and will trigger a motion of censure against him. But without the support of the RN, this motion has no chance of passing. And the RN is reserving judgement—for the time being. There is no “Pavlovian reflex” of censure in the RN, said MP Sébastien Chenu, scoffing at the hysteria of the La France Insoumise party in the process. Le Pen’s party is waiting to judge François Bayrou’s programme on the key issues of the budget, of course, but also immigration and public safety, which have never been his strong points. Le Pen’s welcome to the announcement of his appointment was couched in the form of a warning: “We are asking him to do what his predecessor was unwilling to do: listen to and hear the opposition in order to construct a reasonable and considered budget. Any other policy that would simply be an extension of Macronism, twice rejected at the ballot box, could only lead to deadlock and failure.”
In passing, it should be noted that François Bayrou and his party were the subject of legal proceedings very similar to those currently being brought against the RN in the European parliamentary assistants affair. Bayrou was eventually acquitted—a reason for the RN to remain cautious and watchful.
