Israel must prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkey and its proxies, according to a government-commissioned report on updating the country’s defense budget and security strategy, presented on Monday, January 6th.
The report was unveiled by the so-called Nagel Committee, a group of security and defense officials established by the Netanyahu government and headed by former National Security Council chief Jacob Nagel.
Apart from Iran, the document identifies Turkey as the newest threat to Israel’s geopolitical interests in the Middle East and warns that Ankara’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions and possibly even to war.
“The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the Nagel report states while explaining that Turkish-backed proxies in Syria and beyond would likely fuel regional instability in coming years.
The general recommendation of the report is to shift the entire Israeli defense establishment, including its budget and resources, from the current deterrence and defense posture to “a much more proactive and preventative attack posture,” The Jerusalem Post summarized.
In numbers, Nagel said that this shift would involve splitting defense resources in a 70% attack versus 30% defense balance.
In order to counter President Erdoğan’s ‘imperial’ vision as well as other threats in the region, the report called for drastically increasing the defense budget by at least 9-15 billion New Israeli Shekel (NIS) ($2.48-$4.13 billion) annually over the next five years, and continuing raising it even after 2030 but at a gradually reduced rate.
The minimum NIS 9 billion defense budget increase for 2025 would already mean close to an 8% growth to a total of NIS 123 billion ($33.9 billion). This, however, is far below what the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) asked for at the end of last year.
The Committee submitted these recommendations, along with a comprehensive geopolitical strategy for countering new regional threats, to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Monday.
The prime minister, for one, appears to be fully supportive of implementing these recommendations, including shifting to a more offensive security approach and dealing with emerging threats, such as Turkey.
“We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected,” Netanyahu said in response to the document. “This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future.”
However, it’s unclear how Israel’s allies, especially the United States, would react if the tensions between Tel Aviv and Ankara—two traditional U.S. allies—would flare up. Turkey’s geopolitical interests might conflict with Israel’s, but it’s still a NATO member, which Israel is not. The situation, therefore, is shaping up to be one more tricky puzzle for President Trump to solve once he’s in office.
