The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) rejected the independent candidate Călin Georgescu’s appeal against the Romanian Constitutional Court’s (CCR) unprecedented annulment of the 2024 presidential election, further fueling the country’s drastic political crisis.
In its ruling on Tuesday, January 21st, the ECtHR said its members unanimously voted to reject the nationalist frontrunner’s request to issue an urgent ruling, saying that such a measure is used only in exceptional cases when applicants face imminent risk. A normal ruling in the case, however, is not expected until months later—most probably not in time to make any difference before the election is repeated in May.
The international human rights court was Georgescu’s last resort to reverse the CCR decision which he called a “formalized coup d’etat” after his claim was already thrown out by the Romanian Court of Appeal. The CCR initially annulled the election due to allegations of Russian meddling hosted on TikTok, although subsequently no conclusive proof of this has been made public.
Both pro-European Union and Eurosceptic opposition parties have been calling for the reversal of the initial decision and for a newly organized runoff between the two candidates who came out on top in the annulled first round, Gerogescu and Elena Lasconi, from the liberal, pro-EU Save Romania Union (USR; Renew).
The three nationalist parties—Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR; European Conservatives and Reformists) and two of its more extremist offshoots, SOS Romania and POT—as well as Lasconi’s USR have been accusing the CCR of being influenced by the ruling establishment parties, the Social Democratic Party (PSD; Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, S&D) and the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL; European People’s Party).
Lasconi lashed out especially against socialist PM Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) for “destroying democracy” by forcing a rerun through the socialist-packed court because he ended up in third place in the presidential race and was therefore disqualified from the runoff; as well as acting head of state Klaus Iohannis (PNL), the “illegal tenant” of the presidential palace who refused to step down after his term ended.
Throwing its support behind Georgescu, AUR organized a series of huge protests in the capital, the biggest of which attracted nearly a hundred thousand people. Polls show that a clear majority of Romanians (62%) agree with the opposition parties that the election annulment was unlawful, with only one in three thinking that the CCR made the right call.
The presidential election, both first and second round, will be repeated in May, but it’s not yet clear if Georgescu will even be allowed to run—despite projections put him ahead of all other possible challengers. The four other candidates that will likely participate include Lasconi, Bucharest’s independent mayor Nicușor Dan, and the establishment parties’ joint candidate, former Senate President Crin Antonescu (PNL).
According to the latest surveys published just days ago by the sociological research institute Avantgarde, the establishment’s plotting to prevent the populist candidate from becoming president only galvanized his support among voters.
The polls’ results show that Getogescu would come out on top in the first round again with 38% percent—a staggering 15-point increase since the last time—followed by Antonescu (25%), Dan (17%), Lasconi and AUR leader George Simion with 6% each, and SOS’ Diana Șoșoacă with 5%. Simion and Șoșoacă publicly support Georgescu and will only run if he’s banned from the race, which means Georgescu’s support could be closer to 50% outright.
Furthermore, in all runoff scenarios (in case no candidate wins an outright majority), Georgescu is shown as the most likely winner of the race. Antonescu has the biggest chance of defeating him but would still lose with 38% against the nationalist’s 39%, while Georgescu would score 43% against Dan, and 44% against Lasconi.
Whatever the outcome, the annulment of the election shows the extent to which the EU establishment is prepared to defend itself against democracy.
