Ireland heads to the polls on Friday, November 29th, with a myriad of problems, but with the same establishment parties vying for power and no real alternative in sight.
Based on GDP per capita, Ireland may look like one of the richest countries in the EU, but it is facing a housing crisis that has remained unresolved for many years and a migration crisis that the three most popular parties don’t seem to want to get a grip on.
According to the latest opinion polls, centre-right Fine Gael, which has been in power since 2011, its centrist coalition partner Fianna Fáil, and the opposition left-wing Sinn Féin party—the former political wing of the paramilitary IRA—can expect to each receive around 20% of the votes.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who have swapped power between them since Irish independence from Britain was gained in 1921, are likely governing in a coalition agreement.
This may not be to the liking of many Irish voters, a third of whom still haven’t decided who to vote for—signalling a deep frustration and a lack of trust instilled in the mainstream parties.
Simon Harris is a symbol of that distrust. The 38-year-old prime minister, who only took up his job in April of this year, was filmed by TV cameramen turning his back on a care worker who was complaining about conditions. Harris was heavily criticised for his actions, and Fine Gael is said to have taken a heavy hit in the polls following the prime minister’s stunt.
There are alternatives in Friday’s elections, like the Greens, the Social Democrats, right-wing parties, and independents—who may get about 20-25% of the votes between them—but their individual results will not hugely influence national politics.
According to a recent survey, housing (21%) is the most important issue for voters when deciding who they should vote for, followed by the cost of living (18%), immigration (13%), and the economy (12%).
Ireland’s population—5.4 million—swollen by an influx of immigrants, is growing four times faster than the rate of new house building. Dublin regularly ranks among the EU’s most expensive capitals, and around two-thirds of people aged 25 to 29 still live with their parents, well above the EU average of around 42%t.
None of the three biggest parties have been able to provide a solution to the migration crisis, either, with all three generally pursuing a pro-migration stance in recent years. Sinn Féin has lost a lot of its support—it had been polling at 35% a year ago—due to anger among traditional working-class voters at its liberal attitude to immigration.
Asylum applications are surging, and there has been a population increase of around 100,000 in one year—the largest since 2007. 20% of the population is now foreign-born. This influx has heaped pressure on housing, services, and infrastructure. The country has seen a spike in arson attacks on buildings rumoured or earmarked to provide reception centres for asylum seekers.
