In an attempt to head off the political consequences of the imminent rejection of his 2025 budget, Prime Minister Michel Barnier appeared on national television to defend himself. On Tuesday, November 26th, he announced he will probably force passage of the budget and affirmed his wish to introduce a dose of proportional representation in elections—a move designed to appease the Rassemblement National (RN), which is ready to overthrow him at any moment.
The PM chose the strategy of dramatisation. “I want to talk to the French people: the vote on the nation’s budget is at stake,” he explained. He warned of a disaster scenario if the budget were rejected by MPs and evoked the risk of France being severely punished on the financial markets.
Barnier’s televised address followed consultations with representatives of the various political parties at the start of the week. These talks confirmed what he already knew: namely, the absence of a majority in the National Assembly, which will pressure him to pass the budget by force, using article 49.3 of the constitution. A few weeks ago, he refused to use it, but he now considers it almost inevitable. He therefore knows that he is exposed to being ousted by a motion of censure, which he is trying to avoid at all costs by appealing to the responsibility of MPs:
In the Parisian microcosm, people are manoeuvring. These people would do better to devote their energy to the French people and to France rather than worrying about their future.
In Barnier’s sights is the RN, which holds the fate of the government in its hands. The RN’s votes will be essential to bring down the government if a motion of censure is proposed by the Left. To prevent this from happening, the PM has announced that he is starting work on a bill that has always been a demand of the RN: the introduction of proportional representation (PR) in the voting system for legislative elections.
PR would ensure that representation in the National Assembly is closer to the real state of public opinion. He announced that he would be submitting a study on it in the spring. “We have no time to lose,” said Barnier, anxious to send a signal of his goodwill to the RN as quickly as possible.
Politically, this is a dangerous game for the French PM. He wants to avoid censure but does not want to give the impression that he is submitting to the demands of the RN.
For her part, Marine Le Pen, in an article published in Le Figaro, fiercely criticised the government’s method and castigated “leaders incapable of debate and compromise.” She also denounced the drama orchestrated by the prime minister, who raises the spectre of a major political and financial crisis if his budget is rejected and the government falls. She dismisses out of hand the rumours of a possible ‘shutdown’, which is simply not possible in the French system. Aiming to calm things down, she reminded voters:
Even in the event of censure, taxes would be raised, civil servants paid, pensions paid and medical care reimbursed.
If the PR project promised by Barnier was to go ahead, the RN would be in a more than favourable position at the next legislative elections, since it is already the leading party in France in terms of vote share, and only the voting system prevented it from winning an absolute majority of seats in the June elections. Marine Le Pen’s party has every interest in carefully rationing its threats to achieve its ends without appearing to be the architect of chaos.
