In response to the ongoing negotiations in Brussels over the treaty between the EU and the South American Mercosur bloc, and amid renewed protests from farmers, the French government has announced plans to schedule a debate in the National Assembly.
Faced with a trade deal widely viewed as damaging to French agriculture, Paris is seeking to demonstrate the political consensus against it. Discussions are expected to start on November 26th.
“I am aware of the anger, tensions and lack of understanding among farmers regarding the proposed EU-Mercosur agreement. France is firmly opposed to it,” declared PM Michel Barnier on X. As a result, he announced that he would be making a statement to the National Assembly, followed by a debate and a vote by the deputies.
Controversy in France is heating up following reports that particularly high levels of hormones that are harmful to health and banned in Europe have been detected in meat imported from Brazil and sold in France. This has also been recognised in a study by the European Commission—the same body that is set to close the free trade deal that will facilitate the arrival of such meat from South America.
The Élysée Palace believes that securing a vote against the treaty from French MPs—an outcome virtually guaranteed, given the widespread consensus across the political spectrum—would be a powerful argument in support of France’s position. The announcement of the debate was symbolically made at a time when the head of state is travelling to Brazil for the G20 summit. The date has been set for November 26th, so that the vote can take place before the Mercosur summit in Uruguay from December 2nd to 4th.
Politically, the government is also keen to demonstrate the unanimity of its deputies at a time when rumours of its downfall are intensifying, following the recent cacophonous debates on the budget. Antoine Vermorel-Marques, Les Républicains MP for the Loire department, explained the move to Europe 1:
It strengthens France’s position. Everyone keeps saying that the National Assembly is a mess and that there is no majority. Now we have a situation that brings everyone together, we can also reach a consensus in the National Assembly, but also in support of the government, which is proposing this debate with a vote next week.
Despite everything, French MPs debating and voting against the agreement could prove insufficient to stop it. On November 12th, nearly 600 French MPs wrote to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, asking her to abandon the negotiations. To date, the letter remains unanswered.
What’s more, France will not be able to use its veto right in the Council of the European Union, as this only applies when a unanimous vote is required, which will not be the case here. To avoid this scenario and a deadlock, the Commission has chosen to split the agreement into two parts with two separate votes. The political part would still have to be approved unanimously, but the trade part could be adopted by qualified majority voting. In this scenario, opposition from France would not be enough to bring down the agreement: France would have to succeed in gathering around it a ‘blocking minority’ made up of at least four countries, representing at least 35% of the European population.
At the moment, France’s position does not command a majority within the EU. Germany and Spain are very much in favour of a free trade agreement with the South American countries. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy, on the other hand, like France, has expressed its opposition to the treaty. According to the French minister for agriculture, discussions are underway with Italy, but also with the Netherlands. Other allies might be difficult to find. Austria and Ireland, initially hostile to the treaty, are currently reconsidering their position. Poland is also on the fence, but nothing is certain yet.
