France’s New PM: Is the Wait Over?

The French president raised the suspense by promising—on Tuesday, December 10th—to appoint a prime minister  “within 48 hours.” However, while possible candidates’ names have been circulating, no option has yet been confirmed. Faced with difficulties in broadening his supporter base, Emmanuel Macron is reportedly working on an unofficial ‘no-censure pact’ to guarantee the stability of the government.

In the council of ministers, the president explained that “there is currently no broader base than the one in place today,” meaning that he was unable to build a majority beyond the grouping of centre and centre-right parties that already formed the working basis of Michel Barnier’s government, which was toppled at the beginning of December. Yet he acknowledged that there was “room for discussion with the republican left.”

The president welcomed representatives of the main political parties to the Elysée Palace on Tuesday, December 10th, with the exception of La France Insoumise (LFI) on the Left and the Rassemblement National (RN) on the Right, who are accused of being the architects of the motion of censure.

At the end of these discussions, some names were leaked to the press as likely but unconfirmed options. Among them, that of François Bayrou, president of the centrist MoDem party, former minister, and president of the Commissariat au plan—a consensus-building figure, but perfectly emblematic of the stagnation in which France has been mired for decades. Although he is one of the rare political figures to have made debt management a priority issue for several years, he is nonetheless a pure product of the pro-EU ruling classes, incapable of a convincing alternative discourse on the crisis currently facing the country.

The other name that is circulating is that of Bernard Cazeneuve, former interior minister under socialist François Hollande. His name was mentioned before Michel Barnier was appointed, but he eventually declined.

At the same time as he is looking for a candidate for prime minister, Emmanuel Macron is reportedly trying to build a ‘no-censure agreement.’ The paradox is that 69% of French people would be in favour of such an agreement, but almost as many (67%) do not believe in the parties’ ability to reach the agreement. For Le Figaro, it would be more a question of an “agenda of renunciations”—mutual concessions on what will not be pursued—rather than a forum for advancing new reforms. France finds itself caught in the trap of the Third and Fourth Republics: appointing governments that do as little as possible in order to last as long as possible. 

Following the vote on the motion of censure on Wednesday, December 4th, a poll was launched to test the opinions of the French with a view to the presidential elections in 2027. Marine Le Pen was given 38% of voting intentions in the first round—an all-time high. In the event of her being declared ineligible, her runner-up Jordan Bardella would receive 34% of the vote. The exclusion of the RN from the discussions has enabled Marine Le Pen’s party to reconnect with public opinion with a very effective argument, presenting the RN as the ‘sole opposition party’ in the face of the objective alliance of all its opponents, called the “single party.” In fact, the president of the republic himself highlights “a unanimity of political forces to no longer depend on” it, which strengthens the RN’s position.

It is possible that Macron will announce the head of government at the end of his trip to Poland on Thursday, December 12th.  However, the head of state likes to remain free in his decision-making, and those in his entourage do not rule out the possibility that the appointment will take a little longer, and that he has only set a deadline to push his interlocutors to come to a conclusion.

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