The leaders of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) are convening in Berlin on Friday, January 17th, for the start of two days of discussions about the future of the European Union and the many challenges it faces (based on their agenda, of course).
The meeting will put the spotlight on one of the hosts, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become Germany’s next chancellor, following the elections at the end of February.
With the return of a CDU-led government, the three main institutions of the EU will be spearheaded by politicians closely linked to the CDU/CSU alliance: Merz at the European Council (composed of the heads of European governments), Manfred Weber as the head of the largest group in the European Parliament, the EPP, and Ursula von der Leyen, as European Commission president, a former CDU politician as well as a former minister of the Merkel government.
The question is: what will this bring to the negotiating table? How will it impact the EU’s agenda?
When it comes to von der Leyen and Weber, they have little to boast about regarding the past five years, when the former oversaw a disastrous term with the assistance of the latter.
The German centre-right alliance in the two institutions shifted Europe further to the Left on a range of policies, despite an overwhelming desire by the European electorate to do the exact opposite. The EPP—while calling itself centre-right—rejected collaboration with the conservative and sovereigntist groups in the European Parliament, opting instead to work with the leftist parties and the Greens.
The result: five years of policies that have severely harmed Europe and its economy.
The Migration and Asylum Pact fails to address the problem of keeping the EU’s external borders safe and only serves as a pull factor for migrants wanting to illegally enter Europe.
The Green Deal has contributed to tax hikes, soaring energy prices, and unnecessary regulation around Europe in a bid to reduce carbon emissions. Agriculture and farming have been the sectors most severely hit, so it is no surprise that farmers have been up in arms.
While the United States, China, and other global actors are leaving the EU behind in the areas of innovation, technology, and research and development, the Commission has managed to overregulate the EU’s single market, leading to a loss of competitiveness.
And, as conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly pointed out, the EU still has no strategy on how to end the war in Ukraine, which has been dragging on for almost three years.
Speaking to europeanconservative.com, Werner Patzelt, Research Director at the MCC Brussels think tank, said:
What we can see across European politics is that there is a growing desire for migration policies to be changed, and that the Green Deal has led us into an impasse of declining competitiveness. The European economy must be made more competitive because the strict regulations that have come from the Commission have stifled it.
Friedrich Merz has promised to drive such policies forward, but his promises have to be regarded with caution. Merz is the successor of former chancellor Angela Merkel who, between 2005 and 2021, shifted the CDU to the left, espousing liberal and green policies. Though Merz was elected to lead the party on a conservative platform three years ago, he, Werner Patzelt emphasised, has since got rid of his closest supporters and alienated the conservative wing of his party to gain acceptance by the Merkelists, who still dominate the party on many levels.
The CDU, together with its Bavarian sister party the CSU (to which Manfred Weber belongs), is in a comfortable position to win the national elections on February 23rd, polling in first place at around 30-31%. Building a coalition with the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party would be a huge game-changer for both Germany and Europe, but Merz has refused to work with the AfD and will have to choose the Social Democrats or the Greens—the current failing governing parties—as coalition partners.
Merz’s room to maneuver will hinge on the stability of such a coalition. Whether he can implement his election programme—a tougher asylum policy, placing industry before climate policies, a reversal of the combustion engine car ban, getting rid of bureaucracy—will depend a lot on his coalition partners’ willingness to compromise. As Werner Patzelt says:
If the Social Democrats were to take on board some of what the CDU is proposing, then Germany could play a major role in correcting the wrongs of the first von der Leyen Commission. Everything depends on the stability of, and the compromises within, the next German government.
Germany has always been shy of assuming a leadership role in Europe for varying reasons, but this might be changing: everybody now sees that in such a big EU, with new challenges, with the old paradigm of policymaking breaking apart, proactive leadership is required, and Germany still is the most powerful European country, even with its economic problems.
Pushing through bold European policies will be a struggle without cutting red tape first. The Socialists and Greens in the European Parliament are dead set against reducing bureaucracy, while left-wing commissioners are equally resistant to tougher migration control and scaling back green regulations. It’s a recipe for gridlock.
According to Zoltán Kiszelly, the Director of the Center for Political Analysis at the Századvég think tank in Budapest, Germany cannot even consider ambitious projects at the moment because of its struggling economy. Speaking to europeanconservative.com, he said:
The EU sanctions on Russia, phasing out nuclear power, and the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines have resulted in an energy crisis. There has been no major technological innovation in many decades. They are losing business to China. They are in need of huge reforms. They need money for the euro zone, money to continue funding Ukraine, and money to keep their own economy afloat. This is too much.
The priority for Merz, as it was for Merkel, is to keep the European project and the euro zone in one piece, because the EU is a market with 450 million people, which the Germans need. “Weber and von der Leyen will be his allies,” Kiszelly said.
And EU institutions are already ensuring that if Germany lacks the funds, other countries will also have to curb their spending. The EU is now more compelled than ever to enforce budget deficit procedures against member states that exceed the 3% deficit threshold of their GDP or the 60% government debt limit.
Brussels especially likes to punish countries that do not adhere to the liberal elites’ agenda, such as Hungary and Slovakia. It is no surprise that the Commission has set its sights on the EU-critical anti-establishment Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), which is on the verge of forming a government. Brussels didn’t hesitate to launch a procedure against France last year, either—just weeks before Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally won the first round of the parliamentary elections.
According to Zoltán Kiszelly, von der Leyen and Weber will assist Merz in keeping the European project alive and putting pressure on member states and political forces who don’t fall in line. “They want less money for farmers, less for EU cohesion funds, and more for Ukraine. They cannot allow dissenting voices to form a blocking minority in the EU institutions. Expect the cordon sanitaire to remain in place.”
